Brett Stephens: Hi, Gail. I know we’re going to talk about Donald Trump’s big victory in the South Carolina primary, but first I want to get you thinking about Joe Biden’s State of the Union address. That won’t happen until next week, but I guess the White House speechwriters are working hard on it now.
Any advice on what the president should say and how he should say it?
Gail Collins: Suppose he tells the country how well things are going in the economy, the progress he’s made on priorities like improving America’s infrastructure and relieving people drowning in debt students.
Brett: I’ll argue with you in a minute. Keep on going.
Gael: Then, at some point, he will turn to foreign affairs. You know this is not my topic, but even a viewer like me could guess that Russia’s woes will be associated with Donald Trump’s assertion that the United States should not protect any NATO country that does not spend a certain amount on defense.
Biden already got involved in this one once, but he was so… forceful that I’m hoping for a repeat.
OK, your turn.
Brett: Many Americans view the rematch between Trump and Biden as a case of those who are morally inept versus those who are mentally inept. So the most important thing Biden has to do with this speech is dispel the perception that he is descending into senility. If he stumbles even a little, it will cost him dearly.
The next thing he needs to do is acknowledge the scale of the crisis at the border and blame Republicans for rejecting the bipartisan Senate bill to help resolve the crisis — a cynical MAGA maneuver intended only to keep the crisis alive for Trump’s political benefit. Finally, state that he is ordering several thousand troops to the border, with authority to arrest migrants. This would remind people who the president is and take the issue out of the GOP’s hands.
Gael: Lord, I forgot the border. I just blocked it, I guess. We can fight about this later. Continue with your topics for Biden.
Brett: Regarding Ukraine, I was disappointed by the rather ineffective sanctions announced last week by the administration in retaliation for the cruel death of Alexei Navalny in a Siberian prison. I hope Biden is waiting for the State of the Union to declare that he will seize frozen Russian assets held by the United States and give the money to Ukraine in order to buy American weapons. The alternative is to allow Ukraine to lose the war because of House Republicans’ cowardly deference to Trump. This is un-American, and Biden should challenge them directly. Republicans are to Russia today what the Western far left was to the Soviet Union a generation ago: fellow travelers, apologists and naives.
And about those student loans…
Gael: Ah yes, still a point of conflict for us. There obviously needs to be a rational student loan program that encourages borrowers, usually very young, to choose intelligently the type of agreement they sign up for. This was not the case at first, and many innocent people found themselves stuck in enormous debt while flooding schools with money that was too often used for unnecessary expansion. They deserve help to save their already half-ruined careers and lives.
Brett: I don’t want to sound like a mother superior at the orgy, but for a president to unilaterally cancel $138 billion in debt is downright unconstitutional. Congressional control of the purse strings is fundamental to our system, and defying a Supreme Court decision, as Biden bragged about doing last week, is a literal road to hell: imagine how Trump might use precedent if he returns to power. White House.
Furthermore, while the president surely thinks he is currying favor with young people whose votes he desperately needs, he is also alienating many working-class, non-college-educated voters who see this as another huge gift for unwary borrowers. So: bad politics and bad politics. But now you’re going to tell me why I’m wrong.
Gael: The people who benefit most from Biden’s pardon plan are the ones who deserve it most: low- and middle-income former students who attended community colleges. They believed in the national mantra that college would lead to a good job, but many emerged burdened by debt while qualified for low-paying careers.
There are people who have spent decades saddled with these obligations and are barely able to pay the interest. After a certain number of years, they deserve an escape route.
Brett: And what about all those people who took out loans and dutifully repaid them over many years? Or those who wisely decided not to go into debt in the first place by skipping college? In fact, they are penalized for their diligence and foresight. And I don’t even want to think about how this loan forgiveness creates moral hazard when it comes to other types of debt.
But hey, we said we’d talk about South Carolina. You probably don’t stay up thinking about Nikki Haley’s best interests, but is she wise, politically speaking, to pursue this competition?
Gael: Well, when you lose your home country, it’s probably a message to pack your bags and go for a nice long vacation. On the other hand, Haley was never going to win anyway, and running in the primary is a laudable way to draw voters’ attention to Trump’s terrible flaws. And of course, as an entertaining way to spend spring.
Brett: Intelligent advice or honorable advice?
Gael: You know I’m going to demand both.
Brett: Well, the good advice, politically speaking, is for her to end her campaign, support Trump, assiduously embrace him and his voters, and hope to earn his – and their – blessing for a 2028 run.
The honorable advice is that she accept the fact that she may never be president, but she can become the leader of a principled conservative movement that rejects demagoguery, supports the rule of law, defends free people, freedom of expression and free trade. and free markets – and bides its time until the Republican Party is dezombified and wants to return to its old self. That means campaigning some more, maybe even until the convention.
And speaking of zombies, did I mention I spent 40 minutes on Friday watching a Trump rally?
Gael: The one where he kept talking about the size of the audience?
Brett: Size is a theme with him.
I watched the rally with my mother, who found it reminiscent of the style of the Mussolini regime she was born under in wartime Italy. It referred to inconsistency, pomposity, grandiosity, outlandish lies, demonization, xenophobia, false nods to religiosity and patriotism, references to himself with royal “we”, to the condescension addressed to his toads, to the ecstatic looks of the people behind him on stage. But there’s also an undeniably comedic aspect, especially when he talks about how he took Hillary Clinton’s nickname “crooked” (which is now “Beautiful Hillary”) and gave it to Biden, who used to be ” Sleepy” (and probably still is). I admit I kind of laughed, against my better judgment. The whole thing was a bit like “Il Duce, Live at the Comedy Cellar.”
It’s… terribly effective. If his opponents are Biden and Kamala Harris, I fear he will win.
Gael: Funny, I watched his speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Saturday and found myself falling asleep. I guess I’ve just seen his behavior too many times. I usually try to keep my wits about me by counting the number of times he quotes someone calling him “Sir,” but this time it just didn’t work.
Yet it’s completely wrong to fall asleep when someone tells the audience, “The only thing standing between you and erasure is me.” »
Brett: That’s the kind of thing you’d expect a cult leader to say right before handing out the Kool-Aid.
Gael: I can’t argue with you about his talent for whipping up a crowd when he feels like it. But it is far too early to lose hope. God only knows what will happen between now and November.
Brett: Truer words have never been spoken. What do you think is more likely: Biden dropping out of the race after a terrible stumble? Or is Trump convicted of a crime? Of course, both are possible.
Gael: Wow, imagine an election without either inevitable. If Trump is convicted of a crime, he will appeal, which could lead to a very interesting nominating convention. He would never give up for the sake of the party, even if he was taken away in chains.
Hmm. I really like this image.
Brett: Just remember that James Michael Curley, the Boston mayor who ran for his fourth term while under federal indictment, went to prison for a few months, had his sentence commuted by President Harry Truman, received a hero’s welcome and served the remainder of his term as mayor. term. It could also be Trump.
Gael: They made a movie about Curley called “The Last Hooray,” right? Great movie from Spencer Tracy. I wish Trump would finally be… something.
Biden is, of course, a much saner man, even if he is clearly not capable of recognizing the limits of mortality. If Democrats were able to rally against his nomination at the convention, he would recognize it, I’m sure, but it’s hard to imagine which particular Democrat could organize such a rally.
Brett: Anyone, anyone, anyone who can stop Trump – I’m for it.
